Global Change Research Group

Global change presents great challenges to circumpolar countries. It comprises elements of indirect climate-driven and more direct anthropogenic or human-induced change, as well as feedbacks among these. Threats to the sustainability of arctic social and ecological systems include rapid changes in: Climate Land-use Socio-economic/legal systems The emphasis of the research group is on the natural sciences, but understanding the relationship between human communities and rapid environmental change is also central to its activities. Of special interest are the adaptive responses and resilience of northern societies to recent changes and therefore the group has strong links to the Sustainable Development Research Group . Research topics Climate change research addresses polar and alpine snow and especially glacier ice cover over both shorter and longer time scales. Other topics include the effects of UV-radiation and impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems with special attention to vegetation, and permafrost soils. Examples of rapid changes in land use mineral and petroleum extraction, cutting and burning regimes in northern timberline forests, and large herbivore management, e.g. Rangifer spp. In general, changes in arctic environment and society, the interactions within and among social-ecological systems, are studied within the framework of the subject matter. Direct involvement of local and indigenous peoples and the valuing of ’traditional’ or practitioners’ knowledge are critical within certain projects. Research group Contact information of the research group and the list of researchers is here. The leader of the research group is Research Professor Bruce Forbes. His past and present interests range widely within the fields of applied ecology and geography, including terrestrial ecology, human-environment relations, climate/land use change and resilience in social-ecological systems.

Current and recent research projects

Here is a short list of the recent research projects. More complete list is here.

• Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems of Northwest Eurasia (RISES)
• Nordic Centre of Excellence Tundra (NCoE Tundra)
• Reindeer Forage and Supplementary Feeding in a Changing Climate . Minna Turunen  
• Heterogeneity and resilience of human-Rangifer systems: a circumpolar social-ecological synthesis, 2006-2010. Bruce Forbes  
• Change and variability of Arctic Systems Nordaustlandet, Kinnvika, Svalbard. John Moore 
• Habitat fragmentation and population genetics of grouse. Osmo Rätti 
• The NASA Yamal Project - goal is to use remote-sensing technologies to examine how the terrain and anthropogenic factors of reindeer herding and resource development, combined with the climate variations on the Yamal Peninsula, affect the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation change and how those changes are in turn affecting traditional herding by indigenous people of the region. Bruce Forbes  
• Environmental and Social Impacts of Industrial Development in Northern Russia  (ENSINOR). Bruce Forbes  
• Glaciers and the climate - study of the Antarctic and Spitzbergen glaciers in the changing climate, see the blog from 2006/2007 Antarctic expedition. John Moore
• UV radiation and subarctic ecosystems. Minna Turunen
• Reindeer grazing grounds and physiological condition. Päivi Soppela
• Northern coniferous forests – Tools through research for the sustainable use of forests in the Barents Region. Anna-Liisa Ylisirniö  

Recent Publications

• Bernes, C., K.A. Bråthen, B.C. Forbes, A. Hofgaard, J. Moen and J.D.M. Speed (2013) What are the impacts of reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus L.) on arctic and alpine vegetation? A systematic review protocol. Environmental Evidence 2: 6 doi:10.1186/2047-2382-2-6.
• Xu, L., R.B. Myneni, F.S. Chapin III, T.V. Callaghan, J.E. Pinzon, C.J. Tucker, Z. Zhu, J. Bi1, P. Ciais, H. Tømmervik, E.S. Euskirchen, B.C. Forbes, S.L. Piao, B.T. Anderson, S. Ganguly, R.R. Nemani, S.J. Goetz, P.S.A. Beck, A.G. Bunn, C. Cao and J.C. Stroeve (2013)  Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1836
• Macias Fauria, M., B.C. Forbes, P. Zetterberg and T. Kumpula (2012) Eurasian Arctic greening reveals teleconnections and the potential for novel ecosystems. Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1558.
• Kumpula, T., Forbes, B.C., F. Stammler and N. Meschtyb (2012) Dynamics of a coupled system: multi-resolution remote sensing in assessing social-ecological responses during 25 years of gas field development in Arctic Russia. Remote Sensing 4: 1046-1068. Download pdf.
• Walker, D.A., U.S. Bhatt, T.V. Callaghan, J.C. Comiso, H.E. Epstein,
 B.C. Forbes et al. (2011) Vegetation. In: Arctic Report Card 2011
• Callaghan, T.V., Johansson, M., Brown, R.D., Groisman, P.Ya., Labba, N., Radionov, V., Bradley, R.S., Blangy, S., Bulygina, O.N., Christensen, T.R., Colman, J., Essery, R.L.H., Forbes, B.C. et al. (2011) Multiple effects of changes in Arctic snow cover. Ambio 40: 32–45. Download pdf
• Walker, D.A., H.E. Epstein, M.K. Raynolds, P. Kuss,, M. Kopecky, G.V. Frost, F.J.A. Daniëls, M.O. Leibman, N.G. Moskalenko, G.V. Matyshak, O.V. Khitun, A.V. Khomutov, B.C. Forbes et al. (2011) Environment, vegetation and greenness (NDVI) along the North America and Eurasia Arctic transects. Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015504. Downlod pdf
• Myers-Smith, I., B.C. Forbes et al. (2011) Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities. Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509. Download pdf
• Yu, Q., H.E. Epstein, D.A. Walker, G.V. Frost and B.C. Forbes (2011) Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure. Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045505. Download pdf
• Forbes, B.C., F. Stammler, T. Kumpula, N. Meschtyb, A. Pajunen, and E. Kaarlejärvi (2011) Yamal reindeer breeders, gas extraction, and changes in the environment: adaptation potential of nomad economy and its limits (in Russian). Environmental Planning and Management 1(12)C: 52-68. Download pdf
• Kumpula, T., A. Pajunen, E.M. Kaarlejärvi, B.C. Forbes, and F. Stammler (2011) Land use and land cover change in arctic Russia: ecological and social implications of industrial development. Global Environmental Change 21: 550–562. Download pdf
• Whiteman, G., R. de Vos, F.S. Chapin III, V. Yli-Pelkonen, J. Niemelä and B.C. Forbes (2011) Business strategies and the transition to low-carbon cities. Business, Strategy and the Environment 24(4): 251-265, doi:10.1002/bse.691. Download pdf.
• Murray, M.S., L. Anderson, G. Cherkashov, C. Cuyler, B.C. Forbes et al. 2010, International Study of Arctic Change: Science Plan. ISAC International Program Office, Stockholm. Download [3.7 Mb pdf]
• Callaghan, T.V., Johansson, M., Brown, R.D., Groisman, P.Ya., Labba, N., Radionov, V., Barry, R.G., Bradley, R.S., Blangy, S., Bulygina, O.N., Christensen, T.R., Essery, R.L.H., Forbes, B.C. et al. (in press) Changing snow cover and its impacts. In: Climate change and the Arctic cryosphere: Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA). AMAP, Oslo.
• Macdonald, C., Lockhart, L., Gilman, A., Baker, T.  Bakke, T., Cantin, D., Dam, M., Davies, I., Forbes, B.C. et al. (in press) Effects of oil and gas activity on the environment and human health. In: Assessment of Oil & Gas Activities. AMAP, Oslo. Download [9,6 Mb pdf]
• Walker, D.A., B.C. Forbes et al. (2011) Cumulative effects of rapid land-cover and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. In: G. Gutman and A. Reissel (eds.). Eurasian Arctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate. Springer, Berlin, pp. 207-235. Download [1,4 Mb pdf].
• Bartsch, A., T. Kumpula, B.C. Forbes and F. Stammler (2010) Detection of snow surface thawing and refreezing using QuikSCAT: implications for reindeer herding. Ecological Applications doi:10.1890/09-1927.1. Dowload [2 Mb pdf]
• Forbes, B.C. (2010) Reindeer herding. In: Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected indicators of change. CAFF International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, pp. 86-88. Download [pdf]
• Forbes, B.C. (2010) Marks from vehicles in Arctic tundra. In: Nellemann, C. and E. Corcoran (eds.). Dead Planet, Living Planet – Biodiversity and Ecosystem Restoration for Sustainable Development. A Rapid Response Assessment. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal, p. 35. Download [8 Mb pdf]
• Forbes, B.C., E. Kaarlejärvi T. Kumpula, N. Meschtyb, A. Pajunen, F. Stammler and T. Tuisku (2010) Lessons from the ENSINOR interdisciplinary research project. In: T. Huttunen and M. Ylikangas (eds.) Witnessing Change in Contemporary Russia. Kikimora, Helsinki, pp. 406-427.
• Crate S.A., Forbes, B.C., King, L., Kruse, J. (2010) Contact with nature. In: J.N. Larsen, P. Schweitzer and G. Fondahl (eds.) Arctic Social Indicators: a follow-up to the Arctic Human Development Report. TemaNord 2010:519. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, pp. 109-127. Download [pdf]
• Kumpula, T., Forbes, B.C., Stammler, F. (2010). Remote Sensing and Local Knowledge of Hydrocarbon Exploitation: The Case of Bovanenkovo, Yamal Peninsula, West Siberia, Russia. Arctic, vol. 63, No. 2 (June 2010); p. 165-178. Download full text [3 Mb pdf].
• Soppela, P. (2009). The energetic aspects of migration in northern ungulates, the caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus).  4th CPB Meeting in Africa: Mara 2008. “Molecules to migration: The pressures of life” (Eds. S. Morris & A. Vosloo). Medimond Publishing, Bologna, Italy, pp. 533-550.
• Turunen, M., Soppela, P., Kinnunen, H., Sutinen, M-L. & Martz, F. 2009. Does climate change influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants? – Polar Biology DOI:10.1007/s00300-009-0609-2
• Forbes, B.C., F. Stammler, T. Kumpula, N. Meschtyb, A. Pajunen, and E. Kaarlejärvi (2009) High resilience in the Yamal-Nenets social-ecological system, West Siberian Arctic, Russia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 22041-22048. Download full text [2 Mb pdf].
• Pajunen, A, E. Kaarlejärvi, B.C. Forbes and R. Virtanen (2010) Classification, compositional differentiation and vegetation-environment relationships of willow-characterised vegetation in the western Eurasian Arctic .Journal of Vegetation Science 21: 107–119
• Forbes, B.C., Macias Fauria, M. & Zetterberg, P. (2010) Russian Arctic warming and ’greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Global Change Biology 16, 1542–1554